Estadio Ciudad de Caseros · Analysis updated 02:49 UTC
CA Estudiantes vs San Miguel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for CA Estudiantes and 0.67 for San Miguel, a combined total of 1.62. That distribution gives CA Estudiantes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
CA Estudiantes or Draw
75.2% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.8%
- 1–018.8%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–08.9%
Why the model likes this
CA Estudiantes home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CA Estudiantes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 35% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for CA Estudiantes and 0.67 for San Miguel, a combined 1.62 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 22% and both teams to score at 30%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Recent form
CA Estudiantes
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Madryn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensores De Belgrano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Bolívar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almirante Brown · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Mitre · 3-0 (W)
San Miguel
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 49 |
| 2 | Deportivo Moron | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 44 |
| 3 | Colon Santa Fe | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 42 |
| 4 | Almirante Brown | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Godoy Cruz | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportivo Madryn | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | -1 | 34 |
| 8 | Los Andes | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 9 | CA Estudiantes | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 32 |
| 10 | Racing Cordoba | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico Mitre | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | -4 | 29 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 24 | 6 | 11 | 7 | -4 | 29 |
| 13 | Defensores De Belgrano | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | -5 | 26 |
| 14 | All Boys | 24 | 4 | 12 | 8 | -9 | 24 |
| 15 | San Telmo | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Central Norte | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -9 | 23 |
| 17 | Chaco For Ever | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -7 | 22 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 42 |
| 2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | Atlanta | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Midland | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 38 |
| 5 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 37 |
| 6 | Temperley | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37 |
| 7 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -1 | 35 |
| 8 | Deportivo Maipu | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 32 |
| 9 | San Martin Tucuman | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 31 |
| 10 | Colegiales | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Almagro | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 30 |
| 12 | Quilmes | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 29 |
| 13 | Nueva Chicago | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Agropecuario | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 29 |
| 15 | San Martin S.J. | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 26 |
| 17 | Patronato | 24 | 4 | 12 | 8 | -8 | 24 |
| 18 | Club Atlético Güemes | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -22 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.