· Analysis updated 22:46 UTC
Caersws vs Brickfield Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Caersws and 2.17 for Brickfield Rangers, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Brickfield Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Brickfield Rangers to Win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 2.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–36.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brickfield Rangers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 30% / 21% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Caersws and 2.17 for Brickfield Rangers, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Brickfield Rangers to Win is the headline pick at 50% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Caersws
Brickfield Rangers
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Carmarthen Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Newport City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Treowen Stars | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Baglan Dragons | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Aberystwyth Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Pontardawe Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | llanelli AFC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 15 | Caerphilly Athletic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Porthmadog | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Brickfield Rangers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Guilsfield | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Rhyl | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Mold Alexandra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Caersws | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Denbigh Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Ruthin Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Holyhead Hotspur | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Buckley Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.