Unipol Domus · Analysis updated 04:24 UTC
Cagliari vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.14 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Cagliari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.
Model pick
Cagliari or Draw
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cagliari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Cagliari and 1.14 for Genoa, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Cagliari or Draw is the headline pick at 68% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Cagliari
Genoa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.