Capalaba vs Holland Park Hawks Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Capalaba and 2.43 for Holland Park Hawks, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Holland Park Hawks the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

Holland Park Hawks to Win

61.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.35 – 2.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Capalaba win20%

Draw19%

Holland Park Hawks win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–29.1%
1–17.5%
1–37.4%
0–26.7%
2–26.1%

Why the model likes this

Capalaba home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Holland Park Hawks to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 20% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Capalaba and 2.43 for Holland Park Hawks, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Capalaba

2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · H vs Robina City · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-31T10:30:00.000Z · A vs North Star · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-19T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Holland Park Hawks · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Redlands United · 1-1 (D)

Holland Park Hawks

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Queensland Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	22	17	3	2	34	54
2	Broadbeach United	22	16	4	2	31	52
3	SC Wanderers	22	10	7	5	18	37
4	Ipswich	22	10	5	7	5	35
5	Robina City	22	9	5	8	7	32
6	Caboolture	22	9	4	9	7	31
7	Redlands United	22	8	6	8	2	30
8	Holland Park Hawks	22	9	3	10	-8	30
9	Logan Lightning	22	8	3	11	-2	27
10	North Star	22	6	3	13	-19	21
11	St George Willawong	22	4	1	17	-39	13
12	Capalaba	22	3	2	17	-36	11

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.