Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Celje and 1.90 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Celje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Celje to Win

46.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Celje win47%

Draw20%

Ararat-Armenia win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

2–17.6%
2–27.2%
1–16.7%
1–26.4%
3–15.7%

Why the model likes this

Celje home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 20% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Celje and 1.90 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 76%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Celje

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nafta · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)

Ararat-Armenia

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.