Celta Vigo vs Sevilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.07 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Celta Vigo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Celta Vigo to Win

54.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Celta Vigo win54%

Draw23%

Sevilla win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–010.3%
2–19.8%
2–09.2%
0–16.1%

Why the model likes this

Celta Vigo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sevilla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Celta Vigo

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 2-2 (D)

Sevilla

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Sevilla (La Liga)
2026-01-12T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Sevilla (La Liga)
2025-05-10T14:15:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 3-2 Sevilla (La Liga)
2024-12-14T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-1 Sevilla (La Liga)
2024-03-17T13:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 2-1 Sevilla (La Liga)
2023-11-04T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-1 Sevilla (La Liga)
2023-04-07T19:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 2-2 Sevilla (La Liga)
2022-12-30T18:15:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-1 Sevilla (La Liga)
2022-01-22T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 2-2 Sevilla (La Liga)
2021-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-1 Sevilla (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.