Celtic Park · Analysis updated 00:28 UTC
Celtic vs Falkirk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Celtic and 0.76 for Falkirk, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.
Model pick
Celtic to Win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.1%
Why the model likes this
Celtic home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celtic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Celtic and 0.76 for Falkirk, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Celtic
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 1-1 (D)
Falkirk
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.