Belgium · Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 218:45

33

Friday, 14 August 2026

Jan Breydel Stadium · Referee Jan Boterberg, Belgium · Analysis updated 03:47 UTC

Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.86 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 4.12. That distribution gives Cercle Brugge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Cercle Brugge to Win

47.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.26 – 1.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Cercle Brugge win48%
Draw20%
St. Truiden win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals78%
Over 3.5 goals59%
Both teams to score76%

Correct score

  • 2–17.7%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 1–16.8%
  • 1–26.3%
  • 3–15.8%

Why the model likes this

  • St. Truiden away threat

    Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Cercle Brugge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 20% / 32% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.26 goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.86 for St. Truiden, a combined 4.12 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 76%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Cercle Brugge

    St. Truiden

    • 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 3-3 (D)
    • 2026-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-3 (L)
    • 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Helmond Sport · 0-1 (L)
    • 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 0-0 (D)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Jupiler Pro League table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Club Brugge KV220066
    2Antwerp220046
    3Union St. Gilloise211044
    4Zulte Waregem211014
    5Charleroi110023
    6Gent110023
    7Anderlecht110013
    8Genk210103
    9Cercle Brugge202002
    10St. Truiden202002
    11Standard Liege101001
    12Lommel United101001
    13SK Beveren1001-10
    14RAAL La Louvière1001-10
    15KV Mechelen1001-20
    16KVC Westerlo2002-50
    17OH Leuven2002-50
    18Kortrijk2002-60

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.