Jan Breydel Stadium · Referee Jan Boterberg, Belgium · Analysis updated 03:47 UTC
Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.86 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 4.12. That distribution gives Cercle Brugge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.
Model pick
Cercle Brugge to Win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.8%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–15.8%
Why the model likes this
St. Truiden away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cercle Brugge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 20% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.86 for St. Truiden, a combined 4.12 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 76%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Cercle Brugge
St. Truiden
- 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Helmond Sport · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Antwerp | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Zulte Waregem | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Charleroi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Genk | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Standard Liege | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Lommel United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | KVC Westerlo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.