Saputo Stadium · Referee Fotis Bazakos, USA · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
CF Montreal vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for CF Montreal and 1.92 for Chicago Fire, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Chicago Fire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.
Model pick
Chicago Fire to Win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.3%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–16.7%
Why the model likes this
CF Montreal home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chicago Fire away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chicago Fire to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 27% / 22% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for CF Montreal and 1.92 for Chicago Fire, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
CF Montreal
- 2026-08-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Miami · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 0-0 (D)
Chicago Fire
- 2026-08-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -30 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.