CF Montreal vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for CF Montreal and 1.43 for Los Angeles Galaxy, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives CF Montreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

CF Montreal or Draw

63.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

CF Montreal win39%

Draw25%

Los Angeles Galaxy win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.5%
2–18.6%
1–28.2%
1–08.0%
0–17.7%

Why the model likes this

Los Angeles Galaxy away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CF Montreal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for CF Montreal and 1.43 for Los Angeles Galaxy, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

CF Montreal

Los Angeles Galaxy

2026-08-02T02:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Dallas · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T02:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-18T02:25:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-12T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2022-07-05T02:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 0-4 Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer)
2019-09-22T02:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 1-2 Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer)
2018-05-21T19:00:00.000Z · CF Montreal 0-1 Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer)
2017-04-08T02:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 0-2 Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer)
2016-05-29T00:00:00.000Z · CF Montreal 3-2 Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer)
2015-09-13T02:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 0-0 Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer)
2014-09-10T23:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 2-2 Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer)
2013-10-17T02:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 0-1 Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer)
2012-05-12T20:10:00.000Z · CF Montreal 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	16	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	13	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	3	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	4	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	5	6	0	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
10	Minnesota United FC	18	6	6	6	-5	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	2	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	5	7	7	-5	22
13	San Diego	18	5	6	7	3	21
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	-28	14
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	21	40
2	Inter Miami	18	11	5	2	13	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	5	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	1	26
7	Charlotte	18	7	4	7	2	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	-10	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	-3	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	-17	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	-2	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	-8	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	-11	16
15	Atlanta United FC	18	3	3	12	-14	12

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.