· Referee D. C. Muniz dos Santos · Analysis updated 21:18 UTC
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.65 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Bahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.
Model pick
Bahia to Win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.6%
Why the model likes this
Chapecoense-sc home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 21% / 25% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.65 for Bahia, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 49%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Chapecoense-sc
- 2026-08-08T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-4 (L)
Bahia
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 31 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.