The Valley · Analysis updated 03:28 UTC
Charlton vs Preston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Charlton and 1.16 for Preston, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Charlton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.
Model pick
Charlton to Win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–26.3%
Why the model likes this
Preston away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Charlton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Charlton and 1.16 for Preston, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Charlton
Preston
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bradford · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marine · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Charlton 1-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Charlton 0-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2025-01-14T19:45:00.000Z · Charlton 1-2 Preston (FA Cup)
- 2020-01-18T15:00:00.000Z · Charlton 1-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2019-11-03T12:00:00.000Z · Charlton 0-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2016-02-23T19:45:00.000Z · Charlton 1-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2015-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · Charlton 0-3 Preston (Championship)
- 2012-04-28T14:00:00.000Z · Charlton 2-2 Preston (League One)
- 2011-11-05T15:00:00.000Z · Charlton 5-2 Preston (League One)
- 2011-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · Charlton 0-2 Preston (League Cup)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.