Estádio Urbano Caldeira · Referee Anderson Daronco, Brazil · Analysis updated 03:30 UTC
Corinthians vs Bahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.92 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Corinthians the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Corinthians or Draw
70.8% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.8%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–08.3%
Why the model likes this
Bahia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 30% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Corinthians and 0.92 for Bahia, a combined 2.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Recent form
Corinthians
Bahia
- 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-21T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-17T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.