Corinthians vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.82 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Corinthians the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Corinthians to Win

46.7% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.26 – 0.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Corinthians win47%

Draw29%

Gremio win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–015.8%
1–112.9%
0–012.5%
0–110.2%
2–09.9%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 29% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Corinthians and 0.82 for Gremio, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Model confidence
Corinthians to Win is the headline pick at 47% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Corinthians

Gremio

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.