Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira · Referee Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil · Analysis updated 04:39 UTC
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.35 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Sao Paulo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
Sao Paulo or Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.9%
Why the model likes this
Coritiba home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sao Paulo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Recent form
Coritiba
- 2026-08-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-31T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-3 (L)
Sao Paulo
- 2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2026-02-25T22:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 0-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2023-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-2 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2023-04-29T19:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2022-10-20T23:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-3 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2022-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2021-01-23T22:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2020-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2017-11-26T19:00:00.000Z · Coritiba 1-2 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2017-08-03T22:30:00.000Z · Coritiba 2-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | -2 | 31 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.