Cruz Azul vs Atlas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Cruz Azul and 1.82 for Atlas, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Atlas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Atlas or Draw

64.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Cruz Azul win35%

Draw22%

Atlas win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.3%
1–28.5%
2–17.7%
2–27.0%
0–15.7%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 22% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.82 for Atlas, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Atlas or Draw is the headline pick at 65% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Cruz Azul

Atlas

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.