Crystal Palace vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.30 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Brentford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Brentford or Draw

64.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win35%

Draw27%

Brentford win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.7%
0–110.2%
1–09.8%
1–28.2%
0–07.9%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Brentford to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.30 for Brentford, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Brentford or Draw is the headline pick at 65% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Crystal Palace

Brentford

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.