USA · Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 2023:30
DC UnitedDWDDD

23:30 UTC

Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Audi Field · Analysis updated 21:55 UTC

DC United vs New England Revolution Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for DC United and 1.53 for New England Revolution, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives DC United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

DC United or Draw

65.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

DC United win42%
Draw23%
New England Revolution win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams to score64%

Correct score

  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 1–27.9%
  • 1–06.8%
  • 2–26.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates DC United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 23% / 35% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.70 goals for DC United and 1.53 for New England Revolution, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

  • Model confidence

    DC United or Draw is the headline pick at 65% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

DC United

    New England Revolution

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Major League Soccer table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Vancouver Whitecaps1710432134
      2Los Angeles FC1910451634
      3San Jose Earthquakes1810351333
      4Houston Dynamo181026332
      5Real Salt Lake17836427
      6FC Dallas18765727
      7St. Louis City18756026
      8Portland Timbers18738024
      9Seattle Sounders17737-224
      10Minnesota United FC18666-524
      11Colorado Rapids187110222
      12Los Angeles Galaxy19577-522
      13San Diego18567321
      14Austin18459-1417
      15Sporting Kansas City184212-2814
      1Nashville SC1812422140
      2Inter Miami1811521338
      3New England Revolution18936530
      4Chicago Fire17926929
      5New York City FC18756726
      6FC Cincinnati18756126
      7Charlotte18747225
      8New York Red Bulls18747-1025
      9DC United18585-323
      10Orlando City SC186210-1720
      11Columbus Crew18558-220
      12Toronto FC18387-817
      13Philadelphia Union184410-816
      14CF Montreal184410-1116
      15Atlanta United FC183312-1412

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.