Estadio Juan Pasquale · Analysis updated 04:43 UTC
Defensores De Belgrano vs Almirante Brown Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.45 expected goals for Defensores De Belgrano and 0.78 for Almirante Brown, a combined total of 1.23. That distribution gives Almirante Brown the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 13% for over 2.5 goals and 20% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 29%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.
Model pick
Defensores De Belgrano or Draw
60.0% probability
Expected goals
0.45 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
59%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–029.4%
- 0–122.8%
- 1–013.2%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–28.8%
Why the model likes this
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 20% / 41% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.45 goals for Defensores De Belgrano and 0.78 for Almirante Brown, a combined 1.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 13% and both teams to score at 20%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 29%.
Recent form
Defensores De Belgrano
Almirante Brown
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Bolívar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Cordoba · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Mitre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Estudiantes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs All Boys · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 2-0 Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional)
- 2025-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 2-1 Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional)
- 2025-06-06T18:15:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 1-1 Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional)
- 2024-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 3-0 Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional)
- 2024-05-04T18:30:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 2-0 Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional)
- 2023-09-12T00:10:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 0-1 Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional)
- 2023-04-30T18:45:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 0-0 Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional)
- 2022-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 3-2 Almirante Brown (Primera Nacional)
- 2021-02-20T00:30:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 4-2 Almirante Brown (Copa Argentina)
- 2018-03-31T20:30:00.000Z · Defensores De Belgrano 2-1 Almirante Brown (Primera B Metropolitana)
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 49 |
| 2 | Deportivo Moron | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 44 |
| 3 | Colon Santa Fe | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 42 |
| 4 | Almirante Brown | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Godoy Cruz | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportivo Madryn | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 35 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 10 | Racing Cordoba | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico Mitre | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | -4 | 29 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 24 | 6 | 11 | 7 | -4 | 29 |
| 13 | Defensores De Belgrano | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | -5 | 26 |
| 14 | All Boys | 24 | 4 | 12 | 8 | -9 | 24 |
| 15 | San Telmo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -9 | 23 |
| 16 | Central Norte | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -9 | 23 |
| 17 | Chaco For Ever | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -7 | 22 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 42 |
| 2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | Atlanta | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Midland | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 38 |
| 5 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 37 |
| 6 | Temperley | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37 |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -1 | 35 |
| 9 | Quilmes | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 32 |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 31 |
| 11 | Colegiales | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Almagro | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Nueva Chicago | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 14 | Agropecuario | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 29 |
| 15 | San Martin S.J. | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -8 | 26 |
| 17 | Patronato | 24 | 4 | 12 | 8 | -8 | 24 |
| 18 | Club Atlético Güemes | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -22 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.