Chile · Primera B · Regular Season - 2122:00

22:00 UTC

Monday, 17 August 2026

San LuisDDDWW

· Analysis updated 03:54 UTC

Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Luis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Deportes Santa Cruz and 1.69 for San Luis, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives San Luis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

San Luis or Draw

68.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Deportes Santa Cruz win32%
Draw24%
San Luis win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams to score61%

Correct score

  • 1–110.8%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–17.8%
  • 2–17.5%
  • 0–26.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates San Luis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.39 goals for Deportes Santa Cruz and 1.69 for San Luis, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

  • Model confidence

    San Luis or Draw is the headline pick at 69% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Deportes Santa Cruz

    San Luis

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Primera B table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Cobreloa199821535
      2Santiago Wanderers199731534
      3Magallanes20956132
      4Union Espanola20947131
      5Antofagasta198651230
      6San Marcos de Arica20794830
      7D. Puerto Montt19937230
      8San Luis19784429
      9Deportes Copiapo19766-327
      10Recoleta19757026
      11Deportes Temuco19667324
      12Deportes Iquique19496121
      13Curico Unido19487-1020
      14Union San Felipe19559-1920
      15Deportes Santa Cruz19379-1016
      16Rangers de Talca200614-206

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.