World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round17:00

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Thursday, 13 August 2026

TwenteL

MOL Arena · Referee F. Badstubner · Analysis updated 21:54 UTC

Dunajska Streda vs Twente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Dunajska Streda and 1.18 for Twente, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Dunajska Streda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Dunajska Streda or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Dunajska Streda win44%
Draw26%
Twente win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams to score54%

Correct score

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Twente away threat

    Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Dunajska Streda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.48 goals for Dunajska Streda and 1.18 for Twente, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Dunajska Streda

    Twente

    • 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 3-3 (D)
    • 2026-08-09T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-1 (L)
    • 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 6-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-2 (D)

    Head-to-head

    • 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · Dunajska Streda 3-3 Twente (UEFA Europa Conference League)
    • 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · Dunajska Streda 0-6 Twente (UEFA Europa Conference League)

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.