Hungary · NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 2815:00

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Sunday, 10 May 2026

ESMTK Stadion · Analysis updated 01:57 UTC

ESMTK vs Hódmezővásárhely Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for ESMTK and 1.17 for Hódmezővásárhely, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives ESMTK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.

Model pick

ESMTK to Win

60.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.16 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

ESMTK win60%
Draw20%
Hódmezővásárhely win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams to score61%

Correct score

  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.0%
  • 2–08.4%
  • 1–07.7%
  • 3–17.0%

Why the model likes this

  • ESMTK home form

    13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates ESMTK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.16 goals for ESMTK and 1.17 for Hódmezővásárhely, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

ESMTK

  • 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Csepel · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Hódmezővásárhely · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Monori Se · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszaföldvár · 8-0 (W)
  • 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs III. Kerületi TUE · 1-3 (L)

Hódmezővásárhely

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    NB III - Southeast table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Gyulai Termál44001412
    2III. Kerületi TUE44001012
    3Szeged-Csanád II330059
    4Szolnoki MAV FC321057
    5Dabas3201-16
    6Csepel4121-15
    7Újpest II311154
    8ESMTK311104
    9Monori Se4112-14
    10Sándorfalva4103-123
    11Vasas II202002
    12Bekescsaba 19124022-42
    13Hódmezővásárhely4022-62
    14Honvéd II2011-11
    15Szegedi VSE4013-31
    16BKV Előre3003-100

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.