Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Estoril vs Vitória SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Estoril and 1.10 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Estoril the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Estoril to Win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.1%
Why the model likes this
Estoril home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estoril to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Estoril and 1.10 for Vitória SC, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Estoril
- 2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 3-0 (W)
Vitória SC
- 2026-08-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-24T20:30:00.000Z · Estoril 4-2 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 2-3 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-01-26T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 1-0 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-08-18T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 0-1 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-03-02T18:00:00.000Z · Estoril 1-3 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-10-01T17:00:00.000Z · Estoril 2-3 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-02-04T20:30:00.000Z · Estoril 0-1 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-08-14T19:30:00.000Z · Estoril 0-1 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-01-23T15:30:00.000Z · Estoril 1-3 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-08-13T19:15:00.000Z · Estoril 0-0 Vitória SC (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.