· Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Estrela vs Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Estrela and 1.52 for Nacional, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Estrela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Estrela to Win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Why the model likes this
Nacional away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estrela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Estrela and 1.52 for Nacional, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Estrela
Nacional
- 2026-08-10T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tondela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.