Everton vs Brighton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Everton and 1.30 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Everton or Draw

66.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Everton win42%

Draw25%

Brighton win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.2%
2–18.9%
0–18.0%
1–27.7%

Why the model likes this

Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Everton and 1.30 for Brighton, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Everton

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 0-1 (L)

Brighton

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2025-08-24T13:00:00.000Z · Everton 2-0 Brighton (Premier League)
2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-0 Brighton (Premier League)
2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 0-3 Brighton (Premier League)
2024-02-24T15:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2023-11-04T15:00:00.000Z · Everton 1-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2023-05-08T16:30:00.000Z · Everton 5-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2023-01-03T19:45:00.000Z · Everton 1-4 Brighton (Premier League)
2022-01-02T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 2-3 Brighton (Premier League)
2021-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · Everton 2-0 Brighton (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.