Famalicao vs Rio Ave Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.67 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.

Model pick

Famalicao to Win

62.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.70 – 0.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Famalicao win62%

Draw23%

Rio Ave win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–015.8%
2–013.5%
1–110.6%
0–09.3%
2–19.1%

Why the model likes this

Famalicao home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Famalicao to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 23% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Famalicao and 0.67 for Rio Ave, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Famalicao

2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 1-0 (W)

Rio Ave

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.