FC Dallas vs St. Louis City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Dallas and 1.20 for St. Louis City, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives FC Dallas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

FC Dallas to Win

48.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FC Dallas win48%

Draw24%

St. Louis City win28%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–19.5%
1–09.4%
2–07.9%
1–26.8%

Why the model likes this

FC Dallas home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
St. Louis City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Recent form

FC Dallas

2026-08-13T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-09T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T01:30:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 0-1 (L)

St. Louis City

2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Colorado Rapids · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-23T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Kansas City · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Austin · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-12T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 1-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-07T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 1-1 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-20T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 3-0 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2024-07-28T01:00:00.000Z · FC Dallas 1-2 St. Louis City (Leagues Cup)
2024-06-16T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 2-0 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2024-04-07T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 0-0 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2023-08-31T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 1-2 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)
2023-06-08T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 2-0 St. Louis City (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	15	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	11	33
5	St. Louis City	19	8	5	6	2	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	4	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	4	25
9	Minnesota United FC	19	6	7	6	-5	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
12	San Diego	19	6	6	7	4	24
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	-30	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.