Fencibles United vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fencibles United and 1.18 for Eastern Suburbs, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Fencibles United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Fencibles United or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fencibles United win44%

Draw26%

Eastern Suburbs win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Fencibles United home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eastern Suburbs away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fencibles United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Fencibles United and 1.18 for Eastern Suburbs, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Fencibles United

2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nelson Suburbs · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland City · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-04T06:00:00.000Z · H vs South Auckland Rangers · 3-0 (W)
2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tauranga City United · 3-3 (D)
2025-08-23T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Bay Olympic · 1-0 (W)

Eastern Suburbs

2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Birkenhead United · 2-0 (W)
2025-08-23T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Springs · 2-2 (D)
2025-08-19T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 1-2 (L)
2025-08-16T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Wellington Olympic · 1-1 (D)
2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · H vs West Coast Rangers · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-07-26T06:00:00.000Z · Fencibles United 0-2 Eastern Suburbs (Chatham Cup)
2025-05-31T01:00:00.000Z · Fencibles United 1-3 Eastern Suburbs (National League - Northern)
2025-03-29T06:00:00.000Z · Fencibles United 1-3 Eastern Suburbs (National League - Northern)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.