Fiorentina vs Cagliari Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.06 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Fiorentina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Fiorentina or Draw

71.3% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fiorentina win44%

Draw27%

Cagliari win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–012.0%
0–19.2%
2–18.8%
0–08.7%

Why the model likes this

Fiorentina home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiorentina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Fiorentina and 1.06 for Cagliari, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Fiorentina

2026-08-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 2-3 (L)

Cagliari

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.