Frank Mitchell Park · Analysis updated 05:33 UTC
FK Beograd vs Croydon Kings Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for FK Beograd and 1.54 for Croydon Kings, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives FK Beograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
FK Beograd to Win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Why the model likes this
FK Beograd home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Beograd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for FK Beograd and 1.54 for Croydon Kings, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
FK Beograd
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Campbelltown City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-07-25T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Comets · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United II · 0-2 (L)
Croydon Kings
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
South Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | -86 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.