FK Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.67 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.72 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives FK Crvena Zvezda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws roughly 21% of the time.

Model pick

FK Crvena Zvezda to Win

78.6% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.67 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FK Crvena Zvezda win79%

Draw14%

Hapoel Beer Sheva win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

21%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

2–011.9%
3–010.6%
1–08.9%
2–18.7%
3–17.7%

Why the model likes this

Hapoel Beer Sheva away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Crvena Zvezda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 14% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.67 goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.72 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 48%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

FK Crvena Zvezda

Hapoel Beer Sheva

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.