Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.88 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Flamengo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.

Model pick

Flamengo to Win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.77 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Flamengo win58%

Draw23%

Bahia win19%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.5%
2–011.1%
1–111.0%
2–19.7%
0–07.1%

Why the model likes this

Flamengo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bahia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flamengo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Flamengo and 0.88 for Bahia, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Flamengo

2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)

Bahia

2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-21T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-17T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.