Sportland Arena · Analysis updated 03:40 UTC
Flora II vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Flora II and 1.69 for Tallinna Kalev, a combined total of 4.21. That distribution gives Flora II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.
Model pick
Flora II to Win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–16.3%
- 3–25.7%
Why the model likes this
Flora II home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flora II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 19% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Flora II and 1.69 for Tallinna Kalev, a combined 4.21 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 75%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Flora II
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme Kalju II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 0-0 (D)
Tallinna Kalev
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 48 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 41 |
| 3 | Flora II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 37 |
| 4 | Elva | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 34 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 32 |
| 6 | Maardu | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 32 |
| 7 | FCI Levadia II | 23 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 31 |
| 8 | FC Tallinn | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -22 | 24 |
| 9 | Nõmme United II | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 23 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -27 | 19 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.