Independence Ground · Referee B. Brand · Analysis updated 05:19 UTC
Floriana vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Floriana and 1.18 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Floriana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Floriana or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Floriana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Floriana and 1.18 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Floriana or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Floriana
Shamrock Rovers
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| 11 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 14 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -6 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 27 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 29 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.