Fortuna Regensburg vs ASV Neumarkt Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Fortuna Regensburg and 1.23 for ASV Neumarkt, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Fortuna Regensburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Fortuna Regensburg to Win

47.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Fortuna Regensburg win48%

Draw24%

ASV Neumarkt win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–19.5%
1–09.2%
2–07.7%
1–26.9%

Why the model likes this

ASV Neumarkt away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Regensburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Fortuna Regensburg and 1.23 for ASV Neumarkt, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Fortuna Regensburg

ASV Neumarkt

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Weiden · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Hof · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Kornburg · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Großbardorf · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Eltersdorf · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.