GIL Vicente vs Famalicao Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.98 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives GIL Vicente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.

Model pick

GIL Vicente or Draw

67.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.05 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

GIL Vicente win37%

Draw31%

Famalicao win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–013.8%
1–113.5%
0–013.1%
0–112.8%
2–07.2%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates GIL Vicente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 31% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for GIL Vicente and 0.98 for Famalicao, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
GIL Vicente or Draw is the headline pick at 67% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

GIL Vicente

Famalicao

2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tondela · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Vitória SC	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.