Grebbestad vs Stenungsund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Grebbestad and 1.62 for Stenungsund, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Grebbestad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Grebbestad or Draw

65.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.62

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Grebbestad win43%

Draw22%

Stenungsund win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.5%
2–18.6%
1–27.7%
2–27.0%
1–05.9%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Grebbestad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Grebbestad and 1.62 for Stenungsund, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Grebbestad or Draw is the headline pick at 65% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Grebbestad

Stenungsund

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 2 - Norra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Husqvarna	17	14	3	0	28	45
2	Skara	17	11	4	2	15	37
3	IFK Skövde	17	9	4	4	11	31
4	Ahlafors	17	8	6	3	16	30
5	Grebbestad	17	9	2	6	6	29
6	Stenungsund	17	7	4	6	9	25
7	Herrestads	17	6	6	5	-1	24
8	Motala	17	5	5	7	0	20
9	Kumla	17	5	5	7	-7	20
10	Vänersborgs FK	16	4	4	8	-11	16
11	Tord	17	1	9	7	-10	12
12	Lidköping	16	3	3	10	-18	12
13	IF Karlstad II	16	2	4	10	-13	10
14	Vänersborgs IF	16	2	3	11	-25	9

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.