Arena do Grêmio · Referee Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil · Analysis updated 03:30 UTC
Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Gremio and 1.00 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Gremio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
Gremio to Win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.3%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–08.8%
Why the model likes this
Gremio home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gremio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Gremio and 1.00 for Corinthians, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Gremio
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-1 (D)
Corinthians
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-30T20:30:00.000Z · Gremio 1-3 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2025-11-02T19:00:00.000Z · Gremio 0-2 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2025-06-12T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-1 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2024-12-08T19:00:00.000Z · Gremio 0-3 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2024-08-08T00:30:00.000Z · Gremio 0-0 Corinthians (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2024-08-01T00:30:00.000Z · Gremio 0-0 Corinthians (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2024-07-25T23:00:00.000Z · Gremio 2-2 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2023-11-12T19:00:00.000Z · Gremio 0-1 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2023-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · Gremio 4-4 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 2021-12-05T19:00:00.000Z · Gremio 1-1 Corinthians (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.