Arena do Grêmio · Referee Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, Brazil · Analysis updated 03:31 UTC
Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Gremio and 1.60 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Flamengo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.
Model pick
Flamengo to Win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.4%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Gremio home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Flamengo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flamengo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 23% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Gremio and 1.60 for Flamengo, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Gremio
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-1 (D)
Flamengo
- 2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.