· Analysis updated 22:54 UTC
H&W Welders vs Armagh City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for H&W Welders and 0.81 for Armagh City, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives H&W Welders the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.
Model pick
H&W Welders to Win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.1%
Why the model likes this
Armagh City away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates H&W Welders to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 24% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for H&W Welders and 0.81 for Armagh City, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
H&W Welders
Armagh City
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | H&W Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Queen's University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Ballinamallard United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Warrenpoint Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.