Scotland · Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 218:45

18:45 UTC

Tuesday, 25 August 2026

ZLX Stadium · Analysis updated 04:59 UTC

Hamilton Academical vs Edinburgh City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Hamilton Academical and 3.00 for Edinburgh City, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Edinburgh City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws roughly 23% of the time.

Model pick

Edinburgh City to Win

77.4% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.00 – 3.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Hamilton Academical win9%
Draw13%
Edinburgh City win77%

Double chance 1X

23%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

91%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams to score60%

Correct score

  • 0–28.2%
  • 0–38.2%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 1–38.2%
  • 0–46.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Edinburgh City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 9% / 13% / 77% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.00 goals for Hamilton Academical and 3.00 for Edinburgh City, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 60%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

  • Model confidence

    Edinburgh City to Win is the headline pick at 77% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Hamilton Academical

    Edinburgh City

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.