England · National League - North · National League North - 414:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 22 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:45 UTC

Harborough Town vs Darlington 1883 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Harborough Town and 1.12 for Darlington 1883, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Harborough Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Harborough Town to Win

47.2% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.12

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Harborough Town win47%
Draw25%
Darlington 1883 win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams to score53%

Correct score

  • 1–112.0%
  • 1–010.8%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 2–08.3%
  • 0–17.8%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Harborough Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.55 goals for Harborough Town and 1.12 for Darlington 1883, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

  • Model confidence

    Harborough Town to Win is the headline pick at 47% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Harborough Town

    Darlington 1883

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      National League - North table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Chester220036
      2Worksop Town220026
      3Macclesfield220026
      4South Shields220026
      5Oxford City220026
      6Hebburn Town211024
      7Brackley Town211014
      8Buxton211014
      9Spennymoor Town211014
      10Harborough Town211014
      11Merthyr Town210113
      12Spalding United210113
      13Darlington 1883210103
      14Scarborough Athletic210103
      15Hereford210103
      16Morecambe2011-11
      17Southport2011-21
      18King's Lynn Town2011-21
      19AFC Telford United2002-20
      20Bedford Town2002-20
      21Chorley2002-20
      22Marine2002-20
      23Hednesford Town2002-30
      24Radcliffe2002-30

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.