Tynecastle Park · Referee S. van der Eijk · Analysis updated 21:40 UTC
Heart Of Midlothian vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 4.25 for Benfica, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws roughly 14% of the time.
Model pick
Benfica to Win
85.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 4.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
14%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–46.9%
- 1–36.5%
- 1–55.9%
- 0–45.6%
- 0–35.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 6% / 8% / 86% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Heart Of Midlothian and 4.25 for Benfica, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 88% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Model confidence
Benfica to Win is the headline pick at 86% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Heart Of Midlothian
Benfica
- 2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.