Stadion Poljud · Referee M. Jollenbeck · Analysis updated 21:38 UTC
HNK Hajduk Split vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.60 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 2.08 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, a combined total of 5.68. That distribution gives HNK Hajduk Split the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws roughly 34% of the time.
Model pick
HNK Hajduk Split to Win
66.1% probability
Expected goals
3.60 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.7%
- 3–15.5%
- 4–25.2%
- 4–15.0%
- 2–24.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Hajduk Split to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 14% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.60 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 2.08 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, a combined 5.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 91% and both teams to score at 84%, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Model confidence
HNK Hajduk Split to Win is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
HNK Hajduk Split
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.