Shell Energy Stadium · Analysis updated 07:08 UTC
Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.27 for Real Salt Lake, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Houston Dynamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Houston Dynamo or Draw
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–27.4%
Why the model likes this
Real Salt Lake away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Houston Dynamo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.27 for Real Salt Lake, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Houston Dynamo
Real Salt Lake
- 2026-08-16T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T01:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-14T01:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 0-3 Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-07-13T01:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 0-1 Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-03-16T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 1-2 Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-09-15T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 4-1 Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-08-06T01:00:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 3-0 Real Salt Lake (Leagues Cup)
- 2024-07-04T01:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 2-3 Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-11-11T23:00:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 1-1 Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-11-07T02:00:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 1-1 Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-10-29T22:00:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 2-1 Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-08-27T01:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 3-0 Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -30 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.