Tammelan Stadion · Referee G. Nuza · Analysis updated 07:09 UTC
Ilves vs HNK Rijeka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ilves and 1.52 for HNK Rijeka, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives HNK Rijeka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.
Model pick
HNK Rijeka to Win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
Why the model likes this
Ilves home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Rijeka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 23% / 26% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Ilves and 1.52 for HNK Rijeka, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 75.0% | 76.8% | 1.30 | +1.8 |
| BTTS | No | 1.77 | 51.1% | 52.7% | 1.90 | +1.6 |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.91 | 47.6% | 49.0% | 2.04 | +1.4 |
| Match Result | Away | 1.82 | 50.2% | 51.0% | 1.96 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +0.4 |
| Match Result | Home | 4.00 | 22.9% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -0.4 |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.6% | 74.1% | 1.35 | -0.5 |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 77.8% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.9 |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.9% | 25.9% | 3.86 | -1.0 |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.85 | 48.9% | 47.3% | 2.11 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.75 | 25.0% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ilves
- 2026-08-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mariehamn · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Oulu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stjarnan · 1-0 (W)
HNK Rijeka
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.