Independiente vs Gimnasia M. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Independiente and 0.64 for Gimnasia M., a combined total of 1.42. That distribution gives Independiente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 17% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws roughly 65% of the time.

Model pick

Independiente or Draw

73.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 0.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente win35%

Draw38%

Gimnasia M. win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

62%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals42%

Over 2.5 goals17%

Over 3.5 goals6%

Both teams to score26%

Correct score

0–024.1%
1–018.8%
0–115.5%
1–112.1%
2–07.3%

Why the model likes this

Independiente home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia M. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 38% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Independiente and 0.64 for Gimnasia M., a combined 1.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Independiente

2026-08-12T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-31T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2-0 (W)

Gimnasia M.

2026-08-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-24T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
2	Instituto Cordoba	4	3	0	1	2	9
3	Newells Old Boys	5	2	1	2	1	7
4	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
5	Estudiantes L.P.	5	2	0	3	2	6
6	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
7	Deportivo Riestra	5	2	0	3	1	6
8	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
9	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
10	Central Cordoba de Santiago	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Boca Juniors	5	1	3	1	-2	6
12	San Lorenzo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Platense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Union Santa Fe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
1	Argentinos JRS	4	4	0	0	6	12
2	Belgrano Cordoba	5	3	1	1	4	10
3	Barracas Central	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Gimnasia L.P.	5	3	0	2	-1	9
5	Tigre	5	2	2	1	2	8
6	Huracan	4	2	1	1	2	7
7	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	1	7
8	Independ. Rivadavia	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Sarmiento Junin	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Aldosivi	5	0	2	3	-3	2
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	-4	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.