Italy · Serie A · Regular Season - 3116:30

16:30 UTC

Sunday, 11 April 2027

· Analysis updated 03:28 UTC

Inter vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Inter and 1.10 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.

Model pick

Inter to Win

52.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Inter win53%
Draw24%
AS Roma win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams to score55%

Correct score

  • 1–111.1%
  • 1–010.1%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–08.9%
  • 0–16.3%

Why the model likes this

  • AS Roma away threat

    Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Inter to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.76 goals for Inter and 1.10 for AS Roma, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Inter

    AS Roma

    • 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
    • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
    • 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 4-1 (W)
    • 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-4 (L)
    • 2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 3-3 (D)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Atalanta000000
    2Bologna000000
    3Cagliari000000
    4Como000000
    5Fiorentina000000
    6Frosinone000000
    7Genoa000000
    8Inter000000
    9Juventus000000
    10Lazio000000
    11Lecce000000
    12AC Milan000000
    13Monza000000
    14Napoli000000
    15Parma000000
    16AS Roma000000
    17Sassuolo000000
    18Torino000000
    19Udinese000000
    20Venezia000000

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.