Irtysh vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Irtysh and 1.05 for FK Tobol Kostanay, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Irtysh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Irtysh or Draw

69.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Irtysh win41%

Draw28%

FK Tobol Kostanay win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–012.5%
0–110.5%
0–010.0%
2–18.2%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Irtysh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Irtysh and 1.05 for FK Tobol Kostanay, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Irtysh or Draw is the headline pick at 69% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Irtysh

FK Tobol Kostanay

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	22	16	4	2	27	52
2	Kairat Almaty	21	14	6	1	27	48
3	FC Astana	20	11	5	4	12	38
4	Aktobe	22	10	5	7	6	35
5	Okzhetpes	21	9	6	6	1	33
6	Yelimay Semey	20	8	7	5	5	31
7	Ulytau	22	7	7	8	-6	28
8	Zhenys	21	6	8	7	-3	26
9	Kyzyl-Zhar	21	6	5	10	-5	23
10	Kaspiy	21	6	4	11	-7	22
11	FK Tobol Kostanay	20	6	4	10	-7	22
12	Atyrau	20	3	11	6	-4	20
13	Kaisar	21	3	11	7	-8	20
14	Zhetysu	22	4	7	11	-14	19
15	Irtysh	20	3	8	9	-8	17
16	Altay	22	3	8	11	-16	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.