Stadion Aldo Drosina · Referee Patrik Kolarić, Croatia · Analysis updated 23:46 UTC
Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Istra 1961 and 1.50 for NK Slaven Belupo, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Istra 1961 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.
Model pick
Istra 1961 to Win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–05.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Istra 1961 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.50 for NK Slaven Belupo, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Istra 1961 to Win is the headline pick at 59% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Istra 1961
NK Slaven Belupo
- 2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Istra 1961 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sesvete · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.